The Combine's Relativity To Pass-Rushing

This post was inspired by an article that you can read here. It is about pass-rushers, and how well they do in the 3-cone drill, vertical, and broad jump. In my post, I will be going a bit deeper, using PFF's numbers on pass-rushers to take a look at which of the "elite" pass-rushers in the NFL did well in these workouts and which didn't.

Note: I considered adding 20-yard shuttle to the mix but decided against it because I thought it was less relevant to pass-rushing than the other three.

Firstly, let's take a look at what exactly these workouts involve. Via nfl.com:

The 3-cone drill:

Players start in a three-point stance in front of three cones that are set up in a triangle or L shape, with each cone five yards apart. They then sprint five yards to one cone, sprint back to the starting cone, and head back to the second cone where they run around it and cut right to the third cone. The players then run a circle around the third cone from the inside to the outside and run around the second cone before returning to the first cone.

"Players are required to bend, pivot and shift body weight," Philadelphia Eagles college scout Matt Russell said. "What we're looking for is players who can shift their feet and move around.

"How this drill translates on the field is different for each position. The emphasis on the three-cone drill differs team by team. When teams evaluate players, these drills ultimately matter."

 

The vertical jump:

Players stand flat-footed in front of a pole that has plastic flags sticking out of it. Players jump from a standing position and try to swat as many of those flags as they can.

"We're looking for how quick and explosive (the athletes) are," Kansas City Chiefs pro scout Marcus Edwards said. "From bending their knees and exploding straight up."

The vertical jump is just one component to seeing how skilled athletes are at elevating off the ground from a standstill.

"The vertical jump is obviously one part of this," Edwards said. "But the broad jump is also very important, too, because that's more using your whole body."

The broad jump:

Like the vertical jump, the broad jump is done from a standing position, but this drill measures how far a player can jump.

"It's a standardized test of power, basically," San Diego Chargers college scout Tom Gibbons said. "It's been done for years, so it gives us a starting point and something to compare the players to each other. Since we've done it for years, we can also compare these players to the players of the past as well."

Like many of the core events of the NFL Scouting Combine, athletes are very familiar with this fundamental fitness test.

"The players are ready when they get here," Gibbons said. "They've been training for these events, and now it's not something to prepare for or get motivated to do. It usually goes pretty smooth and most of the players step right up and know what to do."

Now that we know what we're dealing with, what does it all mean? Well, as mentioned in the description, the 3-cone drill is a good measure of agility, or in other words, ability to change directions quickly. Broad jump and vertical jump measure explosion, or leg power. IMO, "get-off" is more important for a pass-rusher than agility, but they are all important nonetheless.

Just on a side note, combine numbers often get shrugged off as unimportant for football as workout warriors often bust, but I think they are very relevant to pass-rushing, as they are almost exactly what a player will be doing as a pass-rusher in the NFL for part of a play, and without the necessary "talent" as a pass-rusher in the NFL, it will be very hard for you to find consistent success. This is similar to CB, because as a CB if you don't have a good enough 40, teams will simply run past you and leave you for dead. I think these positions are the most important when it comes to combine numbers, I don't think WR is as important at the combine as people think.

Another reason people may come up with as to why these numbers aren't important is to say, if he's not explosive enough, wouldn't it come up on film? Not necessarily, even in a competitive conference, you will likely play plenty of "weak", or non NFL caliber opponents in college football, so athletic limitations that are an issue in the NFL, may not show up in college football.

Elite Pass Rushers

Now that we've figured out what we're dealing with, and why it's important, let's get into some numbers. Firstly, the players I'm going to be measuring are the "very good to elite" pass-rushers in the NFL in 2010 according to ProFootballFocus.com (PFF). To define "very good to elite" I am going to consider anyone with a pure pass-rushing grade of at least +16 (the grades are cumulative, so someone with a +10 grade with only 3 games played will not be considered). Why 16? Because this means they averaged at least +1 a game, which IMO is "very good". Also, some players did not work out at the combine due to injury, their own decision, or whatever reason they had. Either way, their data is not available.

Player	Team	PFF Pass-Rushing Grade in 2010	Vertical Jump	Broad Jump	3-Cone Drill
Tamba Hali	Chiefs	+53.2	30"	8'10"	7.28
DeMarcus Ware	Cowboys	+40.7	38.5"	10'02"	6.85
Dwight Freeney	Colts	+34.9	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cameron Wake	Dolphins	+33.1	45.5"	10'01''	7.12
Trent Cole	Eagles	+32.9	38"	10'04"	6.98
Charles Johnson	Panthers	+32.6	34"	9'10''	7.50
Chris Clemons	Seahawks	+31.0	37.5"	10'07"	7.27
Chris Long	Rams	+28.0	34"	10'04"	7.02
John Abraham	Falcons	+27.6	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cliff Avril	Lions	+25.9	32.5"	9'09'	6.9
Ray Edwards	Vikings	+25.3	39"	9'05''	7.71
Lamarr Woodley	Steelers	+24.6	38.5"	9'09''	N/A
Jason Babin	Titans	+24.0	34"	10'01''	7.03
James Harrison	Steelers	+22.2	N/A	N/A	N/A
Robert Mathis	Colts	+21.0	N/A	N/A	N/A
Julius Peppers	Bears	+20.8	N/A	N/A	N/A
Raheem Brock	Seahawks	+20.8	34"	9'07''	7.09
Terrell Suggs	Ravens	+20.1	N/A	N/A	N/A
Mario Williams	Texans	+18.5	40.5"	9'10''	7.19
Clay Matthews	Packers	+17.9	35.5"	10'01"	6.9
Jared Allen	Vikings	+17.1	33"	10'	7.11

All in all, 15 out of 21 "elite" pass-rushers participated in drills at the combine or on their pro day, not a bad number but slightly less than I had hoped for. To give some context to these numbers, the writer of the article I mentioned earlier considers a vertical jump of 39" or more to be very good, a broad jump over 10' to be very good, and a 3-cone drill under 7 seconds to be very good, all of which are highlighted in green in the table above. Also, I have highlighted verticals below 30", broad jumps below  9', and 3-cones above 7.5 in red.

To give some more context, the best vertical jump by a DE at the 2011 combine was 37", and the worst 25". The best broad jump was 10'2" while the worst was 8'8". The best 3-cone drill was 6.69 and the worst was 7.81. Although these numbers may miss out some 3-4 OLB prospects who would be categorized under OLB, I thought the majority of players under that category would be mostly 4-3 OLB or 3-4 ILB types and thus the numbers would be largely irrelevant. Anyway, the 2011 combine gives "baseline" numbers of

Vertical Jump : 25" - 37"

Broad Jump : 8'8" - 10'2"

3-Cone Drill : 6.69 - 7.81

With these "standards" taken into account, how do our "superstars" fare? Well, it would appear the writer of the "inspiration" article (let's just call him Mr I), had VERY high standards indeed, and not many of our "superstars" reach those. But if we use the 2011 combine numbers as a "baseline", not many of them have "horrible" numbers either. The exception is Tamba Hali. Mr I considers the reason for his success - despite these rather average measurables - his high motor, good strength and great pass rushing moves. You could make an argument for Ray Edwards and Charles Johnson also being exceptions, but they only score poorly in the 3-Cone Drill, the "agility test", and IMO, the least important of the three.

The only real conclusion to be drawn from this data is that it is very hard to become a great pass-rusher in the NFL with poor leg-strength or "explosion" (I don't know how scouts expect people to understand them these days, leg strength = blowing up?), and hard (but not as hard) to do it with below average ability to change direction quickly, or agility.

Recent Pass Rushing Prospects

To go even further, I am going to investigate the measurables for some highly drafted players from recent years that (so long as they weren't already mentioned in the "superstar" section). For this portion I am going to look at players drafted only in rounds 1 and 2, as (IMO), if you draft a player in those rounds, you expect him to become a starter. I went as far back as the 03' draft as after that it becomes difficult (for me anyway) to judge player success. Also, I included some players from later rounds that have enjoyed success in the league, these players are in italics and if a player was already mentioned in the above chart he is not included here. Here's the numbers: 

Player	Team	Pick No.	PFF Pass-Rushing Grade in 2010	Vertical Jump	Broad Jump	3-Cone Drill
Manny Lawson	49er's	22	+12.3	39.5"	10'4"	7.65
Matt Roth	Dolphins	46	+10.3	32"	9'4"	6.98
Kamerion Wimbley	Browns	13	+9.9	38.5"	10'9"	6.98
Osi Umenyiora	Giants	56	+7.8	38"	N/A	N/A
Will Smith	Saints	18	+7.4	39.5"	9'9"	7.42
Daryll Tapp	Seahawks	63	+5.6	33"	9'1"	7.32
Anthony Spencer	Cowboys	26	+4.8	32.5"	9'4"	7.14
Quentin Groves	Jaguars	52	+3	35"	10'	7.31
Mathias Kiwanuka	Giants	32	+2.6	32"	10'	7.27
Turk McBride	Chiefs	54	+1.9	31"	9'	7.1
Shawne Merriman	Chargers	12	+0.3	40"	10'1"	N/A
Chris Kelsay	Bills	48	+0.3	36.5"	10'1"	N/A
Derrick Harvey	Jaguars	8	-1	28.5"	9'5"	7.2
Jarvis Moss	Broncos	17	-1.3	30.5"	10'	7.06
Ikaika Alama-Francis	Lions	58	-1.6	35"	9'6"	7.31
Antwan Odom	Titans	57	-4.1	37"	9'6"	7.3
Tim Crowder	Broncos	56	-7.2	30.5"	9'3"	7.28
Tyler Brayton	Raiders	32	-11.5	34"	9'8"	7.14
Calvin Pace	Jets	18	-13.2	33"	9'7"	N/A
DeWayne White	Buccaneers	64	N/A	33"	9'4"	7.22
Vernon Gholston	Jets	6	N/A	41"	10'5"	7.12
Lawrence Jackson	Seahawks	28	N/A	34.5"	9'	7.08
Victor Abiamiri	Eagles	57	N/A	34"	10'4"	7.54
Dan Bazuin	Bears	62	N/A	30"	9'1"	7.09
Erasmus James	Vikings	18	N/A	37.5"	10'2"	7.56
Michael Haynes	Bears	14	N/A	30.5"	9'1"	N/A
Jerome McDougle	Eagles	15	N/A	34"	9'9"	7.28
Alonzo Jackson	Steelers	59	N/A	37"	9'6"	7.69
Shaun Phillips	Chargers	98	+0.5	33"	N/A	6.56
Justin Tuck	Giants	74	+9.7	37.5"	9'10"	7.33

Interestingly enough, these numbers show a similar trend in that it appears the 3-cone drill is far less important to pass-rushing than the other two drills are, as I expected really.

To increase the sample size of the "superstars" I am going to also do a chart with the same qualifiers for 2010 for the 2009 season. Here it is:

Player	Team	PFF Pass-Rushing Grade in 2010	Vertical Jump	Broad Jump	3-Cone Drill
Dwight Freeney	Colts	+32.9	N/A	N/A	N/A
Robert Mathis	Colts	+26	N/A	N/A	N/A
Lamarr Woodley	Steelers	+25.6	38.5	9'9"	N/A
Tamba Hali	Chiefs	+23.9	30"	8'10"	7.28
DeMarcus Ware	Cowboys	+23	38.5"	10'02"	6.85
James Harrison	Steelers	+21.8	N/A	N/A	N/A
Elvis Dumervil	Broncos	+21.2	N/A	N/A	N/A
Andre Carter	Redskins	+19	38.5"	11'	N/A
Ray Edwards	Vikings	+17.7	39"	9'05''	7.71
Jared Allen	Vikings	+17.3	33"	10'	7.11
Trent Cole	Eagles	+16.2	38"	10'04"	6.98

Again, the 3-cone drill appears to be somewhat inconsequential, whilst players with good vertical and broad jumps flood the list of top pass-rushers.

Other Pass Rushers

The third to last chart I am going to present is of all the players in the NFL who got a grade of +16 or better in either 2009 or 2010 from a position that wasn't 34OLB or 43DE like my other charts have been limited to. Here it is:

Player	Position	PFF Pass-Rushing Grade In 2010	Vertical Jump	Broad Jump	3-Cone Drill
Justin Smith	34DE	+19.8	34"	9'9"	N/A
Jason Jones	43DT	+17.3	25.5"	10'3"	7.29
Wallace Gilberry	34DE	+16.4	30"	9'10"	N/A

This is quite simply bizarre, as Jason Jones has got a great score in the broad jump, and a TERRIBLE one in the vertical jumb, tests that both measure leg power. He must have jumped poorly that day or something. Anyway, all three players here exhibited the talent to rush the passer at the next level.

Cowboys front seven

The second to last chart I am going to show you is of the Cowboys front seven players and their combine numbers. This will include the positions of 34DE, 34NT, and ILB.

Player	PFF Pass-Rushing Grade in 2010	Vertical Jump	Broad Jump	3-Cone Drill
DeMarcus Ware	+40.7	38.5"	10'02"	6.85
Jay Ratliff	+15.6	33.5"	9'9"	7.35
Stephen Bowen	+15.6	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jason Hatcher	+15.6	35.5"	9'5"	7.68
Victor Butler	+15.6	33"	9'5"	7.21
Anthony Spencer	+4.8	32.5"	9'4"	7.14
Keith Brooking	-0.3	N/A	N/A	N/A
Bradie James	-0.4	32.5"	9'5"	7.53
Josh Brent	-2.3	29"	8'10"	7.71
Marcus Spears	-3.1	31"	9'1"	7.21
Igor Olshansky	-4.3	33.5"	9'2"	7.61

Wow, that's not exactly a lot of pass-rushing talent right there. I think it's safe to say Josh Brent isn't ever going to be a pass-rushing force on the inside LOL. Jay Ratliff has a pretty decent broad jump and Ware's numbers are excellent, but the only one outside of those two that could have natural pass-rushing talent is Stephen Bowen.

2011 Pass Rushing Prospects

The final chart I am going to bring you is a list of some of this year's top rated pass-rushing prospects and their combine numbers:

Player	Vertical Jump	Broad Jump	3-Cone Drill
Cameron Heyward	30"	N/A	N/A
JJ Watt	37"	10'	6.88
Justin Houston	36.5"	10'5"	6.95
Adrian Clayborn	33"	9'5"	7.30
Da'Quan Bowers	N/A	N/A	N/A
Von Miller	37"	10'6"	6.70
Cameron Jordan	31"	9'9"	7.07
Robert Quinn	34"	9'8"	7.13
Ryan Kerrigan	33.5	10'2"	7.18
Akeem Ayers	31"	9'8"	7.49

Did anyone else notice Von Miller? Miller, Watt and Houston look like good prospects based on these numbers, although ultimately they all look good. IMO if a prospect does well in one of the "explosion" tests, and average to poor in the other, he probably has good explosion and just tested poorly in the one of the tests, this is not something you can fake. The only guys that look jag-ish here are Clayborn and Heyward, although Heyward only has one of the more important "explosion" tests done, I wouldn't be willing to bet that he simply had a bad workout.

Conclusion

From this research it appears as though the vertical jump and broad jump workouts have a high correlation with pass-rushing success in the NFL, whilst the 3-cone drill has less of one. This is mostly what I expected. Although a high correlation is apparent, it is by no means a clear sign of a good pass-rusher. Vernon Gholston is a perfect example of this, he has elite measurables, but those measurables are only an indicator of upside, any player must have the drive, technique, and consistent motor to take advantage of that talent. Also, it appears from this information you would be foolish to draft a "pass-rusher" (for me a 34OLB or 43DE) in the first round (if not the second) with average to below average measurables in the two explosion tests, as the chance of this player turning out to be a very good to elite pass-rusher in the NFL are low. At best you will end up with a JAG like Anthony Spencer (you may hit the lottery and score a Tamba Hali who appears to be the LONE exception to this rule).

My Proposed Formula For Success In The Draft

I often think about draft strategy as it is something that I'm extremely interested in. After lots of thought this is the best draft approach I could come up with, and I think it's a good one.

Ultimate Goal: win the superbowl.

How: obtain maximum value from every cent you have under the salary cap and spend most if not all of your money. Some may say (and I would've at a time aswell said this) pass the ball, and defend the pass. Brian Burke at advancednflstats.com has done extensive research on the topic that clearly shows these are the most important factors to winning in the nfl. This chart https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Aq_pzudn-VEDdEFRNF9fX1lwV2Nid1NOUUlBZWh6R2c&hl=en#gid=0 is clear evidence to support this. And I say, I wholeheartedly agree. But the way to win, is still to obtain value from the money you spend under the cap. The theory that you pass the ball and defend the pass just changes the value of certain positions eg. QB, CB, OT, and pass/rusher (DE in a 4-3 and OLB in a 3-4).

How this affects draft strategy: positions that affect the passing game more should be more highly valued, whilst maximum VALUE should still be the ultimate goal of every pick.

Actual proposed draft strategy: BPA with a few twists and stunts. Firstly, QB's value is insanely higher than any other position. The effect Peyton Manning has on the game relative to Patrick Willis is (this is an EXTREME estimate) IMO roughly 5 to 1. The point is QB is by far the most important position on the field. Also important are CB, OT, and DE/OLB. I've heard people make the argument for WR, but I don't buy it all TBH. Secondly, value can be maximised in the draft by taking the BPA. Draft boards should organised into tiers of similiarly graded players and these grades should be based on the expected production over the potential draft pick's rookie contract. Also affecting position on a team's big board is position. A starting caliber QB has similiar value to an excellent prospect at OG (roughly, this is an example). When it comes to a teams turn to draft, they should a) consider a trade down if there are many players of the same tier on the baord left, to a position where it is CERTAIN there will be at least one of the players currently on the board of the highest value (for example if there are 3 OG's, 4 WR's, and a FB left at the highest tier available, they should stay attempt to trade down no more than 7 spots, as this will net them the last remaining OG or WR at this tier (obviously this is not always possible) and maximise value or b) take the BPA at a position of need. This is the key. There are different levels of need. They are -

1. Need a starter
2. Need a future-starter (current starter "old" (old varies by position, 30 isn't old for a pocket QB that has shown good durability throughout his career)
3. Needs depth
4. No need (QB always has a need due to the high trade value)

This means if there are for example 1 CB, 1 OT, and 1 pass-rusher left at the highest graded tier on your board, CB is grade 1 need, OT is a grade 2 need, and pass-rusher is a grade 2 need, you should by my draft approach take the CB. Also, if you swap out the OT for a FB, and the CB for a C, you should take the pass-rusher.

What I have stated here is nothing special or new, it's just what alot of people have already said, with my preferences on all the little things set in stone, written out to give a rock solid picture of what to do come draft day. Btw, my opinion on trading up is simple - don't. Trading up should only ever be done for a QB, and even then with no more than a 3rd round draft choice. No one can project player success at the nfl level accurately enough to ever trade up, anyone who does is ignorant. Also I have different standards for different positions, at QB, OLB, CB, and OT you only don't need a starter if you have an excellent young player at the position. At every other positon, you're fine with a JAG really.

Note: I could see my trade up strategy coming under heavy criticism, with people saying "but what if Patrick Peterson's there at 7, and it would only take a 4th rounder (just an example, I don't know if a 4th would actually get us that far) to move up". And to this I say, there have been lots of "can't miss, elite prospects" that have busted. Don't get caught up in the hype. Does anyone remember Aaron Curry, the so-called safest prospect in the draft, how's that working out for you, Seattle? Also, I want to note I obviously don't think this strategy is perfect, but I DO think it gives any team that employs it the best chance to win. Also to note is that the teams that most closely resemble this draft strategy are the perennialy winning teams. Just saying.

Please comment on anything you disagree with here, but no haters!

Musings of a Fan

 Note: this was originally a fanpost on www.bloggingtheboys.com (by me of course). Also, I don't completely agree with all that I wrote at the time TBH LOL.

This article is just thoughts about the Cowboys that have been floating around my head.

Musing #1 - Articles I can't be bothered doing that someone should

• A series of articles reviewing past drafts of the Cowboys. I think these would be interesting because they would show the types of mistakes JJ has been prone to in the past and how he is progressing as a GM.
• An article researching the main reasons good players fall in the draft
• An article researching the main reasons players bust.

Musing #2 - Positions I think it is mostly useless trying to get a "great" player at (yes I realise this isn't directly about the Cowboys)

• FS - what are a FS' responsibilities? The main ones are: playing deep center field, playing deep half, playing deep quarter, playing the deep third, and being a solid tackler. As you can see most of a FS' job is to "not let the ball get behind you" (is that what they say, the wording abandons me), this is not something that requires a high pick IMO. The only way I would draft a FS high or pay big bucks for in free agency is if they were EXCELLENT at getting interceptions eg Ed Reed, or.... ? The argument could be made for Troy Polamalu but IMO he is just a guy that gambles alot and makes alot of "splash" plays that people remember and because of this is infact quite poor at "keeping the ball in front of him" and gives up alot plays aswell that people don't notice and/or remember. My point is, these guys are VERY rare, but in saying this I would not be opposed to "ponying up" whether in the form of a high draft pick or big bucks if we think we can get one of these "elite" FS'. I know people will bitch and moan about Alan Ball but I never said just throw a 7th round CB with two games experience at FS in to the starting line up with no proven alternative, I'm just saying don't necessarily get the most expensive free agent, maybe go for the solid guy who doesn't get beat deep and won't cost as much.
• ILB - what are an ILB's main responsibilities? No. 1:be solid against the run, No. 2: don't be a liability in coverage duties ie. shallow zone, man against a back or TE, No. 3: be an option to blitz. Now my point here is not so much that elite ILB's are really hard to find, but more that it is not a game-changing position, just because of the fact that is less a specialist position, and more a be solid in all departments position.
• NT - all a NT really has to do is be big and very strong as to hold the point of attack against the run, and push the pile if a pass is called, also, they're not on the field on passing downs. What I just outlined is the prototypical NT, obviously we do not have that, we have NT a that thrives on speed, using his speed advantage over most interior offensive linemen to penetrate. This makes him a strong pass-rusher, and average against the run (although he wears down as the season goes on in this regard due to his small size). Due to extensive research showing passing to be more important than running I do not mind this, but I know lots of people who do, and I do not blame them. I have a theory that due to NT being the most important position against the run in the 3-4 that, due to the rest of our front 7 being relatively stout against the run, with a NT strong against the run, our run D could be ELITE, and that could make offenses very one dimensional against us, just a theory of mine. But overall, I don't think it's important to have some amazing NT just for the fact that it's almost impossible to find a NT that isn't one dimensional. Last year, Kyle Williams and Antonio Garay were the only NT's to grade significantly well in run d and pass rush, with the former playing more as DT in a 4-3 than a NT in a 3-4. And IMO, one dimensional players can be found in the later rounds (after the first round I mean in this case).
• SS - main responsibilities include playing man against TE's, being staunch in run support, playing the deep half or quarter, playing an underneath zone, playing man against a back, and blitzing. Similiar to ILB I think this is one of those positions that is so non-specialist that is hard to make a huge impact on the game really.
• RB - main job is to run, followed by catching and pass blocking. I think if you can get an Adrian Peterson type, you treat the position like CB, but those types of backs are far and few between. I don't know if Jerry thought he was getting one of those guys in Felix, but he hasn't, and a first round pick for a speed back, that can't carry the load? That's not good value IMO, I mean, the only way he's been able to carry the load so far is by putting on weight and not being a speed back anymore.Also, decent backs are so easy to find, drafting a back before say, the 4th round does not make sense, also the value is even less because they have such short shelf lives, it's generally not even worth giving them a second contract. Similiar to safety and NT I think the great ones are so hard to find, they're not worthing looking for (as you can not be sure they won't bust), and as doing so usually costs a high draft pick ala Reggie Bush.
• Interior O-line - these positions simply do not have enough impact on the game to be worth a high pick or a huge contract, period.
• The rest are fair game, although CB, OT, QB, and pass-rusher should definitely be the priorities.

Note: someone may have already done the articles I suggested, if so just pop us the link, tah.

What REALLY happened to the Cowboys defense in 2010???

 Note: this was originally a fanpost on www.bloggingtheboys.com (by me of course!)

Over the past couple months there has been much debate over the reasons for the Cowboy's defense falling to pieces in 2010. In this fanpost I will attempt to uncover the true reasons for the mess that was the Cowboys D last year.
Note: I use PFF grades somewhat in my analysis, if you do not think these grades accurate, please do not tell me, let's just agree to disagree, no one's making you read this fanpost, thanks.

Possible reasons include:

• Inconsistent pass-rush
• Poor secondary play
• Predictable play-calling
• Over estimation of talent on team
• Lack of effort due to Wade "the-softie" Phillips
• Any number of combinations of all the above reasons

Possible Reason #1: Inconsistent Pass-Rush 

Possible reasons for this include: having only two good pass-rushers (Rat and Ware), and having only two good pass-rushers on the field on running downs (same). Frankly, I don't but this theory. My reasoning is that Stephen Bowen graded out well as a pass-rusher on PFF and, he started from week 9 onwards. Also, the Cowboys were the highest graded pass-rushing TEAM in the nfl on PFF in 2010.

Possible Reason #2: Poor Secondary Play

I am of the opinion that this played a large part in the decline of the Cowboys' defense last year. My reasoning is as follows:
a) The secondary was never that good in the first place - in 2009 with a DOMINANT pass-rush, and great run D to make opponents one-dimensional, the pass D was still only average (although the secondary did play pretty well, especially the CB's)
b) The CB's and FS graded out extremely poorly on PFF. This essentially just confirms the obvious - the Cowboys secondary stunk it up in 2010. But, because I think the pass-rush was good, I essentially blame the secondary for playing poorly.
c) IMO, the pass-rush was still good, the CB's were the same guys, so I think a large factor in the CB's stinking up the joint was the unreliable play of FS Alan Ball.
d) Also, something I can't be sure of, but am highly skeptical of, is Jenkins' motivation. his only good year came when his starting spot was challenged by Scandrick. The league is full of guys who pony up in contract years, or when they have to, then mail it in when it doesn't count, I can only hope we don't have one of those guys in Mike Jenkins.

Possible Reason #3: Predictable Play-Calling

TBH, I think this probably was a factor in the lack of pass-rushing productivity from the LB's and DB's, but without more extensive research, I couldn't conclusively say so for sure. All I know is how embarrassing it was watching Keith Brooking get stonewalled by Clinton Portis in slow motion replay.

Possible Reason #4: Over Estimation of Talent on Team

I think this is definitely a factor. I myself, went into the year thinking - "two GREAT OLB's rushing the passer, two pro-bowl corners, and a great run D, we're set". Obviously I was drinking the kool-aid somewhat. Anthony Spencer, in all his years of play, has ONE season of good play (it's commonly said it was only half a season, but PFF has him relatively consistently good throughout the year). The combined pass protection grade of RT's he dominated that year (got a pass-rushing grade of 1 or higher in the game, I can't be sure all of the pressure he got in each game was against the RT, in fact it's highly unlikely, but it's highly likely most of it did) was +28.6. This is excellent and some of the better ones he did this against include Tyson Clabo, Jon Stinchcomb (was actually good back then), and Winston Justice (8th best pass-blocking grade amongst T's that year at +10.2). To think he had "turned the corner" was not an unreasonable presumption, but nonetheless he was decidedly average in 2010. Also, with almost perfect conditions on 2009, Jenkins and Newman were only GOOD, not great, I think they were both extremely overrated heading into last season.

Possible Reason #5: Lack of Effort Due to Wade

I don't think this is true really. If it was would the pass-rush have graded out well on PFF? Would the passing offense have been as prolific with Jon freaking Kitna at the helm? No, I don't buy this at all.

Conclusion

IMO, the run D (which I haven't covered at all due to my belief that it wasn't that bad and that pass D is more important than run D) regressed somewhat in 2010, but I don't think that was the main reason we lost so many games. I think the main reason we lost so many games was because we couldn't defend the pass. I think this was due to extremely poor play at the FS position (which I think affected the play of the CB's somewhat), and poor play by the CB's. I think although our issues defensively are big, they are not MANY, and thus can be solved in one offseason. I think if we sign at least a decent coverage FS, and either sign a good CB and/or draft a CB high, we have legitimate chance of making and winning the superbowl next year. Go Cowboys!

A Look Back At The Cowboys' 2008 Draft

 Note: this was originally a fanpost on www.bloggingtheboys.com (by me of course)

In this fanpost I will take a look back at how the 2008 draft played out for the Cowboys', and come to any conclusions I can.

The Cowboys original draft picks were the 22nd in each round. Pre-draft trades included (note: round mentioned is highest round of any draft picks involved):

• First Round- No. 22: Browns to Cowboys. Cleveland traded its first-round selection in 2008 and a second-round selection in 2007 (No. 36, later traded to Philadelphia, who selected Kevin Kolb) for Dallas' first-round selection in 2007 (No. 22, used to select Brady Quinn). Analysis: how unlucky were we that Derek Anderson decided not to suck for a year and the pick we received was only the 22nd, not a top-10 or something better we might've expected. Either way this trade was a romp (in our favour). They essentialy GAVE us a second round pick, idiots LOL.
• Fourth Round- Dolphins to Cowboys. The Miami Dolphins traded their fourth-round selection in 2008 to the Dallas Cowboys for players Akin Ayodele and Anthony Fasano. Analysis: The first trade with Miami was horrible on our part, Fasano has been a solid starting TE for three years for the Dolphins, and Ayodele was decent for a year, then he was below average, then he was cut. That production clearly trumps a fourth round pick = FAIL.
• Fourth Round- Cowboys to Titans. The Dallas Cowboys traded their fourth-round selection to the Tennessee Titans for suspended defensive back Pacman Jones. Analysis: The trade with the Titans was actually a VERY good one. It gave up a mid-round pick for a player with extreme upside and NO risk. This is because the deal had all sorts of clauses in it meaning if he screwed up off the field we would be largely compensated by the Titans. We got half a season of average production out of him, then he got suspended and all sorts of crap, meaning the Titans essentially ended up giving us more than we gave them, and after the season we cut him.
• Sixth Round- Cowboys to Dolphins. Dallas and Miami exchanged their sixth-round selections in a trade with Jason Ferguson going to the Dolphins as part of the deal. Analysis: Concerning the trade with the Dolphins, although the value wasn't high, he only gave them around 450 snaps in 2008, and 200 or so in 2009, counting 4mil towards the salary cap each year. Not only was he definitely over-priced for one of the years, arguably both, he would have been a back-up on our team (Ratliff), so this was more of a give-away really.

Draft day trades were:

• First Round- No. 25: Seahawks to Cowboys. Seattle traded its first-round selection to Dallas for Dallas' remaining first-round selection (No. 28) and its fifth- and seventh-round selections (No. 163 and 235). Analysis: meh, neither here nor there.
• Third Round- No. 92: Cowboys to Lions. Dallas traded its third-round selection to Detroit for Detroit's fourth-round selection in 2008 (No. 111) and fourth-round selection in 2009. Analysis: I don't know how this works out according to that points system but it seems decent enough to me, especially considering Detroit were likely to be giving us a high fourth in 09'.
• Fourth Round- Cowboys to Raiders. Dallas traded their fourth-round selection (#100 overall) to Oakland for their fourth-round selection (#104 overall) and seventh-round selection (#213 overall). Analysis: meh.
• Fourth Round- Cowboys to Browns. Dallas traded their fourth-round selection (#104 overall) to Cleveland for their fourth-round selection (#122 overall), and fifth-round selection (#155 overall). Analysis: meh.
• Fourth Round- Cowboys to Browns. Dallas traded their fourth-round selection (#111 overall) to Cleveland for their 2009 NFL Draft third-round selection. Analysis: WIN, this is SO short-sighted of Cleveland.
• Fifth Round- Jaguars to Cowboys. Jacksonville traded its fifth-round selection (#143 overall) to Dallas for it's fifth-round selection (#155 overall) and seventh-round selection (#213 overall). Analysis: meh.

THE ACTUAL PICKS!!!

 

• Felix Jones, Running back, Arkansas, 6-0, 200 pounds, 1st round, 22nd overall. Analysis: as RB's come, this was not a great value pick, I'm no scout but even I can tell you a guy coming out of college with seasons of 99, 154, and 134 carries is no sure thing to become a feature back, and when you take a RB in the first round, that is what you expect, either that or an EXTREMELY dynamic back that can give you 10-15 touches a game. Felix was that back for his first two years (although was only on the field for 60 snaps his rookie year), but was only average in his third year, averaging 4.3 YPC, and only grading out as +0.7 rushing grade on 189 carries according to PFF. This could be due to his bulking up in order to be less injury-prone, in which case you have to give some of the blame for his less than satisfactory season in 10' to the coaching staff (or conditioning staff or whatever). Even if he had been this good, the value of taking a RB in the first round is questionable. Looking at scouting reports, durability was the obvious concern coming out of college, and this has proved to be his major falw in the pros. Overall, this wasn't a very good pick, but with still two years on his contract, it can increase it's value somewhat with two years of good production.

 

• Mike Jenkins, Cornerback, South Florida, 5-10, 197 pounds, 1st round, 25th overall. Analysis: his rookie year was a wash, second year excellent, and third HORRIBLE. For where he was picked, depending on how he performs in the last two years of his contract, this could end up being a good pick, as it stands, I'd say it's about average, maybe slightly worse. Scouting reports cite main flaws as poor technique and character concerns. Going by last year it seems as if his technique caused him some problems, and from there it snowballed, he may be somewhat of a "frontrunner". Just a theory.

 

• Martellus Bennett, Tight end, Texas A&M, 6-6, 260 pounds, 2nd round, 61st overall.Analysis: disappointing rookie year, followed up by a good year blocking, but extremely poor in the passing game. His third showed progression in the passing game, with even better blocking. Bennett only signed a four year contract, and, although BPA is often a good approach, this is one example of it failing somewhat. With one year left on his contract, it is extremely doubtful we are going to end up with a good value out of this pick. With roughly 500 snaps apiece these last two seasons, although his play has been good (IMO), he has been stuck behind an all-pro TE in Jason Witten. With as much the Cowboys have used a 2nd TE, his value hasn't been TERRIBLE, but I don't think it's been good enough either. I think we should strongly consider the possibility of trading either before the season or during the season to try and recoup some of that second round value. As for what scouting reports said of him coming out of college, he has pretty much been as advertised, a good blocker, with all the tools athletically to be a good pass-catcher, but poor route running, average speed and inconsistent focus which he has improved over his time with the Cowboys.

• Tashard Choice, Running Back, Georgia Tech, 5-10, 215 pounds, 4th Round ,122 overall. Analysis: Choice has been what you would expect out of a 4th round back - solid. He has been right around 250 snaps each season he's been in Dallas, with his performance being solid each year. This pick really could have been an excellent value with him (IMO) being the second best RB on the team each year he's been on the roster, and it's only due to JJ's stupidity at signing MB III to such a ridiculous contract/insistence on trying to get "value" out of that contract by playing him even though he's DONE, that it hasn't been. He could've been splitting carries with Felix for three years, and will probably only end up doing it next year. This extremely poor player management IMO. I'm still going to say this was a good pick though, it should've been of great value to the Cowboys. Scouting reports pretty much hit the nail on the head with Choice, what else it there to say?

• Orlando Scandrick, Cornerback, Boise State, 5-11, 198 pounds, 5th Round ,143 overall. Analysis: Scandrick started most of his rookie year in the nickel, and all of his 2nd and 3rd years. In his rookie year he was solid, recording a coverage grade of +1.4. Although in the last two years he has been below average. You could forgive the Cowboys for thinking he would be a viable slot CB in his second year after how he performed in his rookie year, but to go into the 2010 season with him as our slot corner, and no alternative was just plain stupid IMO. Coming out of college he was regarded as more of an athlete than a football player, and this is blatantly apparent to even me watching games. I can't count the number of times he's been thrown at, in pretty good position aswell, and just does nothing as the WR catches the ball and he then tackles him. he displays extremely poor awareness, ball skills and instincts. In saying this he did look far better in Pasqualoni's (no idea how to spell that) more zone based schemes, showing much better awareness when he's allowed to keep his eyes on the QB, and may be a good fit for a team like Indy or something. Overall, I think he may be passable in Ryan's system as a nickel guy, but was not a fit at all in Wade's man-based scheme, and was something of a round peg in a square hole, so I don't think we should give up on the guy. As for value, this was a good pick, alot of 5th round picks do NOTHING, but it was a complete non-fit scheme-wise.

• Erik Walden, Linebacker, Middle Tennessee State, 6-2, 243 pounds, 6th Round, 167 Overall. Analysis: the one scouting report I could find on the guy said he had good physical tools, but was extremely raw (the guy had great stats, so I'm assuming Middle Tennessee State isn't exactly a powerhouse LOL). After we released him he's bounced around the league, most noticeably playing for the Packers, in their super bowl run, displaying good coverage ability, but not much ability rushing the passer or in run defence. I also read somewhere the Pack liked him because Kampman couldn't play coverage, so they had to blitz him more, meaning they had to drop Clay Matthews into coverage more, so they went after guys that could cover like him and Zombo, so they could rush Clay more, completely irrelevant but interesting nonetheless. Anyway it seems kind of stupid that we cut the guy over players like Carlos Rogers (played poorly on special teams in 08', then cut) and Bobby Carpenter, especially considering he was good on special teams that year, and at least has a chance to be good (unlike these two). I think this was a decent pick. 

Conclusion:

We managed our resources in this draft pretty decently via trade, and for the most part picked up solid players. This ultimately means it was a solid draft, although held back from being a great one due to us not really "nailing" any of the top picks, and the fact that it's only been three years since the draft, and some of these players still have two years left on their contracts to prove their worth. But I decided to analyse this draft anyway due to the fact that profootballfocus.com's grades only go as far back as 2008 and I consider them to be a relatively accurate way of judging player performance, you may disagree, it is what it is. At this point I give this draft a tentative B, with full awareness that it's value is highly likely to change over the next two years according to the contributions of everyone except Walden, which says something about the consistency of the draft, that everyone is still on the roster except one guy, and he probably should've been on the roster at least another year IMO.